Evans, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

866
FXUS62 KCAE 150556
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
156 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge centered over the region through Friday
will shift west this weekend and into next week. Scattered
storms likely Friday afternoon, especially in the CSRA followed
by lower rain chances and near normal temperatures over the
weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Some morning fog and stratus around, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening.

The persistent mid-upper level ridging remains to ourself and will
remain fairly stretched and flat, continuing westerly flow aloft
into the area. At lower levels, a developing offshore low pressure
system will drive some northerly component flow into the region from
850mb and below. This will have a very minor impact on the surface
moisture gradient across the area, with some slightly lower dew
points in the north, but PWAT`s will remain very high across the
area (over 2.1"). Without morning convection and dew points in the
mid-70`s, instability will be notably higher today than the last few
days with surface CAPE likely exceeding 2500 j/kg. A residual MCV-
shortwave will approach the area from the west later this evening,
adding some mesoscale forcing, but prior to that we will only see
some typical convective temp driven airmass showers and storms. With
the aforementioned shortwave however, more widespread and stronger
storms will possible late in the afternoon and evening with a nice
consensus in the HREF members. Based on the diurnal timing, the CSRA
has the highest chance for some more organized and widespread storms
mainly after 4pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- A backdoor cold front will drop southward on Saturday,
  increasing rain chances.

- Drier conditions are expected behind the front for Sunday and
  Monday, with warmer temperatures on Monday.

Upper ridge will continue to move west, with the axis centered
over the Rocky Mountains by the end of the period. Heights are
expected to be near to above normal across the region. This
should favor drier conditions and near to slightly above normal
temperatures. A weak cold front is forecast to move through the
region on Saturday, which could serve to enhance shower and
thunderstorm coverage, though this will depend on where the
boundary is during peak heating. Current guidance suggests that
the southern forecast area will see the highest rain chances as
the sea breeze interacts with the boundary. The overall severe
threat is low but any thunderstorm could produce heavy rainfall
leading to localized flash flooding and is supported by the
Marginal (1/4) risk for excessive rainfall on the Day 2 WPC ERO.
Temperatures on Saturday should be cooler than today but near
seasonal values. Sunday and Monday appear to be the driest days
of the next seven with lower PWATs in place behind Saturday`s
frontal passage, hopefully giving the region a chance to dry out
a bit. Temperatures will be near normal on Sunday and near to
slightly above normal on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Relatively dry behind a weak front for Sunday and Monday.
- Mainly diurnal storm chances return by Thursday.

The big story during the extended will be future Hurricane Erin
and where it tracks. Fortunately, the majority of model guidance
continues to show a weakness in the ridge developing over the
Eastern CONUS and a trough picking the hurricane up, with Erin
passing between the United States and Bermuda during the middle
of next week. The development of a trough could increase rain
chances later in the period but with little forcing aloft,
mostly isolated diurnally driven convection is expected.
Temperatures begin near seasonal values but may gradually fall
as the week goes on.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Some morning stratus and fog is expected with MVFR-IFR cigs and vsby
possible. Typical summer conditions then likely this afternoon and
evening with scattered storms.

Clearing skies aloft and abundant low level moisture are setting up
for a decent fog-stratus chance this morning. We are already seeing
some lowering vsby at OGB as of 0600z. Given ground temps, it likely
will not be a truly dense fog, more of a MIFG type situation but
included some mentions on this potential for all TAF sites down to
MVFR around sunrise. OGB TAF includes IFR given the climatology
and current behavior. Beyond this morning, a typical summer
afternoon is likely with typical 4-6k foot cu field, light
northerly winds of 5-10 knots, and scattered showers and
storms. Convective coverage should remain fairly low throughout
the early to mid afternoon with some more widespread storms
possible, mainly at AGS and DNL, after 2100z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Typical summertime conditions
return with afternoon convection and possible periods of stratus
in the morning each day.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$